The Recalibration Part 2: Horseshoes & Bridges
I thought most of us learned this in middle school.
The Horseshoe
Ironically, Horseshoe Theory dates back to Otto Strasser, an early Nazi. The theory itself isn’t fascist in any way, but it’s an interesting history note. The thrust of the argument is that the far-left and far-right have more in common with each other than they do with their own side. It’s the rejection of a linear political spectrum.
Social scientists (especially leftists) often reject the Horseshoe Theory, citing evidence that the far-left and far-right disagree more often than the center does. That’s probably true, but I’m not arguing about shared values. I don’t care if fascists and communists agree on any social issues. My concern is the similarities in their methods and willingness to force their beliefs on others. Also the death toll of their movements. Essentially, the threat they each present to a healthy and thriving democratic society.
We tend to focus on the x-axis, or left-to-right too much. We end relationships over sometimes slight movements along this spectrum.
I argue we need to turn our attention, almost exclusively, to the y-axis. Liberal-to-authoritarian.
The point where the ends start to curve back in toward each other is the threshold of authoritarian and totalitarian tendencies. The willingness to force our views onto others, for whatever we believe is the greater good.
I can work with people I disagree with. That’s what democracy is for. We argue our cases and vote if we can’t reach consensus. I do not love my neighbor less for holding different views than I do on a variety of issues. But, of course, there’s a line.
I’ve drawn it in orange.
By liberal, I am referring to liberal democracy, or “Western-style” democracy. It includes conservatives, progressives, neoliberals, neoconservatives, “classical liberals,” and any other political leaning that places the emphasis (if only slightly) on personal freedoms and rights over the state. It’s still a spectrum, we’re just setting a threshold to identify…
The Margins
The extremist fringe. The college students with Chairman Mao on the wall planning to firebomb the Justice Center. The social media activist sending death threats to local politicians. The Neo-Nazi recruiting young men on Telegram. The charitable organization funneling money to an overseas terrorist organization.
Plus anyone who tolerates, runs cover for, or supports them.
These people do not value democracy or liberty, though some claim to. At the extreme ends you have actual domestic terrorists. Moving back toward the center you have their support systems and apologists recruiting young people to their cause. Even closer to that orange line you have the useful idiots. People who are too uneducated, naive, or plain stupid to know that they have crossed beyond the pale.
Sorting out this mess of political refuse isn’t worth your time. These are our margins, left and right. You can’t “get rid” of them, but you can shut them out of power and keep them… marginalized. They might even be useful at the margins.
Take Antifa - they’ve doxxed actual Neo-Nazis living in Portland, some in positions of relative power or with access to children. That’s dangerous work, and it’s vital to uncover these groups because they actively recruit young people.
Unfortunately, many Antifa members are also violent and mentally unwell. They targeted Jewish comedian Michael Rapaport when he visited Portland. Rapaport’s certainly not a fascist but he is a supporter of Israel and a Zionist. Based on what we learned last time, they count him as a valid target.
They targeted a Gender Critical Feminist group at the Hollywood Library. Again, transphobia is fascism by their definition. No point arguing with these women. They’re nazis, punch away.
We do need an antifascist group keeping an eye on fascists, but probably not the group who thinks that everyone who isn’t them is fascist. It would be like getting mauled by your own guard dog because he thought all humans were intruders.
You already know fascists and white supremacists are bad. Fascism is an ugly philosophy that only the truly broken and desperate fall for. The threat is real but we’re also aware of it. The only real threat to that awareness is an ever expanding definition rendering the term meaningless. The Boy Who Cried Nazi wouldn’t be very antifascist at all.
Remember far-right murderer Jeremy Christian, perpetrator of the 2017 MAX stabbings? He needs no lengthy condemnation. He is obviously and infamously dangerous, mentally ill, and has no business being on our streets. Fortunately for us, he no longer is. His trial was closely covered; the victims and survivors celebrated as heroes.
Local media doesn’t spend as much time covering the “other” side. To fight Nazis is noble, but what about stalking Jewish comedians or fire bombing cars outside Rene Gonzalez’s house? Does that sound noble? The articles on these events tend to be sparse. Few photos of the perpetrators or details about their beliefs. This leads many Portlanders to think the left may have a few wing nuts, but they’re far less dangerous than those on the right. Hardly worth thinking about.
This is far-left “Antifa Super Soldier” Isabel Rosa Araujo, pictured on trial for alleged assault and harassment of a female victim. I have to pull from the Post Millennial again because Portland’s local news doesn’t cover these stories.
The case was dismissed due to “discovery issues.” Araujo sports a 666 tattoo above the right eye and “evil trans” on the neck. Wrapped in a keffiyeh. This is a person who happily advertises they are a threat to perceived enemies. I want to remind you how broad their “enemies” category has become.
Can you find the daylight between this person and Jeremy Christian? Not on values but on the threat they pose to others. While it is more likely that Isabel and I agree on a few political issues, I have absolutely no illusion that we are allies.
Araujo’s account @redguard.in.blackbloc.666 is now private but it’s noteworthy that several “normal progressive” groups including Rose Haven follow it. Look around for the strangest, most violently antisemitic pages connected to Portland’s radical scene and this username will crop up in the likes and follows. Almost as if Araujo stays at home, extremely online, looking for targets to vent frustrations on.
When the assault case was dropped, Araujo posted a celebratory link to a Nasheed for Muslim Warriors mocking Andy Ngo and “Zionists.” That’s reassuring.
Do you remember Man or Bear? As a Zionist Jew, given the choice between being stuck in the woods with Jeremy or Isabel, I’d request the addition of a bear.
Reporters for the Post Millennial are practically the only ones covering these stories, and that is bad. If you abandon reporting to one side of the political spectrum it creates blind spots in your awareness.
To recap: a large, violent, pro-terror, “anti-Zionist”, militant Maoist, has already allegedly (also on video) politically attacked at least one woman, and is followed on social media by a women’s shelter and others connected to our local government. This case wasn’t news outside of Andy Ngo’s social circle. That’s how big the blind spot has gotten.
As I’ve argued before, these people will not take over the city. They aren’t going to succeed at revolution. They will never topple “The Empire.” They’re also unlikely to succeed at an assassination or a mass casualty event, mostly because the FBI does keep an eye out, even if local news doesn't. If we’re keeping score, the far-right have been more successful at violence and destruction.
But are we really comfortable with city council members, unions, non-profits, and political groups organizing with these people? For their social circles to overlap so much? Is that good for our city? To be this tolerant of violent fringe politics? To normalize, downplay, or defend them? Is it okay that our public defender non-profits are stacked with sympathetic comrades to help them skate on assault charges? The black bloq crowd will probably argue the police are biased in favor of fascists so this is simply equity.
I think we can do much better.
The Center
Here’s a modern classic tweet which distills the progressive misperception about centrists:
The correction I would add to the far left is “…and we will kill as many people as we deem necessary to reach that goal.” “Everyone” might end up being a much smaller population, but hey, those needs are going to get met!
There are moments when I literally cannot tell the far left from the far right any longer. That doesn’t make me a centrist. It makes me a supporter of liberal democracy. My ideal is not the exact center of the horseshoe. I don’t live there myself.
My goal is to identify our cut-off points on the left and right. The “pale” that one can be accused of being “beyond.” The Center is the approximately 80% of Portlanders, Oregonians, Americans who exist between these two points. It’s not even the Republican’s “Silent Majority.” It’s larger than that. It’s closer to Bernie’s 99%, although for me, he crossed the line long ago through foolishness alone.
Let’s look at our current city council. I rank them:
When Jonathan Maus refers to Olivia Clark as “moderate” I mean… I guess? For Portland.
Is Jamie Dunphy over the edge of that line? Is he hanging by his fingers? We shall see over the next 3 years. Note that Candace Avalos isn’t too far for me. That’s democracy, baby! I do not like her politics. I do not trust her. However, someone like her is probably a part of representing of a healthy and whole Portland. The council would be fine with her on it. It’s her plus Dunphy and the DSA that present the problem.
The issue is that those close to the line are perfectly happy working with people on the other side of it. They don’t view Communism as particularly problematic. They’re still stuck on the x-axis left-right thinking.
I promise the opposite is not true. Extremists and radicals do not play nice with others. It’s a matter of time before that becomes more clear. Right now the DSA is minding their Ps and Qs on social media because they are being watched. They aren’t used to scrutiny or keeping their mouths shut, so this won’t last.
The city union negotiations will be an early fight. The Renter’s Bill of Rights will be another (if EPG fails to keep it off the agenda). They may get away with ignoring Israel now that a ceasefire is in place, but I doubt it. Olivia Katbi is owed favors and she won’t be satisfied until we have a public condemnation of Israel up for a vote. More stupid, pointless symbolic resolutions.
This is my critique of progressivism. Many progressives would prefer to work with a self-identified “Maoist” over a conservative or even a center-left liberal. This isn’t a good political strategy and it doesn’t make sense.
We’ve got less than two years to remind our neighbors that the majority of us agree on the majority of issues. We are not better served by working with the extremist fringes.
Mayor Keith Wilson’s unsheltered homelessness plan is promising. We can back that. We can focus on the upcoming School Board elections (which I will be covering). We can grow social groups and political organizations that reject the fringes. We can reclaim groups that have lost their way.
We can re-marginalize our margins and build broad coalitions of reasonable people who all want the same thing - a safe, thriving Portland where everyone is welcome, but not everything is tolerated.
During the Dark Days, radical leftists re-popularized the phrases “We Protect Us,” “Whose Streets? Our Streets!” and “May the bridges I burn light the way.”
This is Bridgetown. Stop supporting the people who want to burn. Support those who want to build.
Once we’ve marginalized the bad actors, what about their theories? People voted for them, so they must have a few good ideas. I’ll go over some in The Recalibration Part 3: Reclamation & Reform.
I like the diagrams. Keep them coming.
Keep doing what you're doing!
Where would you put former Multnomah County D.A. on the vertical liberal-to-authoritarian axis?